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Advanced Frameworks for Predicting Recession and Recovery Phases

A framework-driven course on identifying where the economy sits in the business cycle and what that means for markets, built for macro-focused investors, fund managers running top-down allocation calls, and senior finance professionals. Goes from the mechanics of leading, lagging, and coincident indicators through yield curve and credit signals, real-economy recession data, recovery-phase identification, and cycle-based portfolio positioning, grounded throughout in Indian data (RBI policy, IIP, PMI, NSE sector performance) and major historical cycles.

MODULES

5

DURATION

~3.5 hrs

TRACK

Macro & Markets

Access Level

LEARNER

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Everything included

Full Text Playbooks

Actionable Exercises

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Curriculum Breakdown

Chapter 1: The Business Cycle Framework

4 Lessons

Beyond the Textbook: What the Business Cycle Actually Looks Like in India10 min read

Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators: Telling Them Apart10 min read

Why Textbook Cycle Theory Breaks Down in Practice9 min read

Phase-by-Phase Anatomy: Expansion, Peak, Contraction, Trough11 min read

Chapter 2: Reading the Yield Curve and Rate Signals

4 Lessons

Yield Curve 101: What an Inversion Actually Signals10 min read

Credit Spreads as an Early Warning System10 min read

The RBI Policy Cycle as an India-Specific Lens on the Business Cycle11 min read

Case Study: What India's Yield Curve Said Before Past Slowdowns12 min read

Chapter 3: Recession Signals in Real Economy Data

4 Lessons

IIP and Core Sector Data: Reading an Industrial Slowdown Early10 min read

PMI Manufacturing and Services: The Fastest Signal You're Probably Ignoring10 min read

Bank Non-Food Credit Growth as a Recession Gauge10 min read

Corporate Earnings and Margin Trends as Confirmation, Not Prediction11 min read

Chapter 4: Recovery Phase Identification

4 Lessons

Early-Cycle vs Late-Cycle Recovery: Telling Them Apart10 min read

Sector Rotation Patterns on the NSE During Recoveries11 min read

The Credit Cycle Turn: When Bank Lending Signals a Bottom10 min read

Common False Recovery Signals and How to Avoid Them10 min read

Chapter 5: Portfolio Positioning and Historical Case Studies

4 Lessons

Positioning a Portfolio by Cycle Phase: A Practical Framework11 min read

Case Study: The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and India's Recovery12 min read

Case Study: The 2020 Covid Crash and India's V-Shaped Recovery12 min read

Case Study: The 2013 Taper Tantrum and EM Vulnerability11 min read