Case Study: Crude Oil's Negative Price Event of 2020
On 20 April 2020, the expiring WTI crude oil futures contract on the CME did something that had never happened before: it settled at minus $37.63 a barrel. Sellers were paying buyers to take oil off their hands. Hours earlier, on India's own MCX, the May crude contract had already settled at minus Rs 2,884 a barrel, a shock that wiped out accounts and triggered a wave of broker disputes. This case study builds up from first principles, what a futures contract actually promises, why storage costs create contango, why COVID-era demand collapse filled every storage tank on earth, and then walks through exactly how and why the price went negative on both exchanges. It closes with the practical lessons for Indian retail traders: what changed in margin and circuit rules after the event, and a simple framework for deciding whether commodity futures belong in your portfolio at all.