Masterclass: Lessons From a Career Spent Forecasting Cycles

A masterclass for senior macro investors, fund managers, and top-down strategists who already know the indicators and now want the judgment that comes from using them through several full cycles. Instead of another indicator catalogue, this course is organised around lessons: why a forecaster's real job is positioning rather than prediction, how growth, liquidity, and sentiment cycles interact and why liquidity usually leads, how to read a turn before it is visible in reported data, and which mistakes cost the most (being early, falling in love with a thesis, confusing a liquidity cycle with an earnings cycle). Indian cycles from 2003 to 2008, 2010 to 2013, the 2018 NBFC crisis, March 2020, and the 2021 to 2024 rate cycle are used as the working material, alongside the RBI, Fed, and global liquidity backdrop that Indian markets actually trade on. The final chapters convert judgment into a repeatable practice: sizing macro views for uncertainty, rotating sectors and factors across the Indian cycle, hedging with Nifty options and duration, and grading your own forecasts. Closes with a capstone where you write your own cycle playbook.