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Masterclass

Masterclass: Ruchir Sharma's Framework for Spotting Breakout Nations

A masterclass on the top-down framework Ruchir Sharma built over two decades of running emerging market money at Morgan Stanley and later Rockefeller International, and set out in Breakout Nations (2012) and The Rise and Fall of Nations (2016). The course starts with his central warning, that growth rarely persists and most emerging market stories end in mean reversion, then works through each of his ten rules: working-age population growth, the political cycle, good and bad billionaires, the perils of the state, geographic sweet spots, factories first, the price of onions, cheap currencies, the kiss of debt, and hype watch. Each rule is turned into a measurable indicator with named data sources (IMF WEO, World Bank, BIS, RBI, Forbes), scored on real countries including China, Brazil, Turkey, Vietnam, Poland and India, and connected to what an Indian investor can actually buy through international mutual funds, ETFs, the LRS route and domestic proxies. Closes with a capstone where you build and defend your own breakout nations scorecard.

Emerging MarketsTop-Down InvestingMacro FrameworksCountry SelectionCredit CyclesDemographicsIndia MacroGlobal Allocation

MODULES

6

DURATION

~3.5 hrs

TRACK

Macro & Markets

What You'll Master

Why almost no country sustains fast growth for more than a decade, and what that implies for every long-run emerging market thesis

Each of Ruchir Sharma's ten rules as a concrete indicator with a threshold, a data source and a known failure mode

How to read a country's credit growth, current account, inflation and currency together to spot a crisis two to three years early

How to spot crony capitalism from the billionaire list and why it matters for equity returns

How to score and rank countries on a single scorecard, and how the framework rated China, Brazil, Turkey, Vietnam and Poland

Where India stands on every rule today, using RBI, MOSPI and IMF data, and which indicators to watch next

How to express a country view from India: international feeder funds, ETFs, the LRS route, and Nifty stocks that act as proxies

Access Level

LEARNER

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Everything included

Full Text Playbooks

Actionable Exercises

Mobile Reading Mode

Lifetime Updates

Curriculum Breakdown

Chapter 1: Why Most Emerging Markets Never Break Out

3 Lessons

The Myth of the Long Run: Why Fast Growth Almost Never Lasts11 min read

From Breakout Nations to the Ten Rules: How the Framework Evolved10 min read

Reading a Country Like a Stock: The Top-Down Investor's Data Toolkit11 min read

Chapter 2: People, Politics, and Plutocrats

3 Lessons

People: Working-Age Population Growth and the 2 Percent Test11 min read

The Circle of Life: Political Cycles, Fresh Reformers, and Stale Leaders11 min read

Good Billionaires, Bad Billionaires: Reading the Rich List for Cronyism12 min read

Chapter 3: The State, Geography, and Factories

3 Lessons

The Perils of the State: Government Spending, State Banks, and Meddling11 min read

The Geographic Sweet Spot: Trade Routes, Neighbours, and Second Cities10 min read

Factories First: Investment, Manufacturing, and the Only Proven Escalator12 min read

Chapter 4: Prices, Currencies, and Debt

3 Lessons

The Price of Onions: Inflation as the Growth Killer and the Vote Killer11 min read

Cheap Is Good: Currency Valuation, Current Accounts, and Locals Leaving First12 min read

The Kiss of Debt: The Five-Year Credit Rule That Predicts Crises12 min read

Chapter 5: Hype, Scorecards, and Case Studies

3 Lessons

Hype Watch: Magazine Covers, Consensus Darlings, and the Curse of Popularity10 min read

Building the Scorecard: Weighting the Ten Rules and Ranking Countries12 min read

Case Studies: China, Brazil, Turkey, Vietnam, and Poland Through the Framework13 min read

Chapter 6: India and the Investor's Playbook

3 Lessons

India Through the Ten Rules: Strengths, Gaps, and What to Watch13 min read

From Country View to Portfolio: Feeder Funds, ETFs, LRS, and Nifty Proxies12 min read

Capstone: Running and Defending Your Own Breakout Nations Scorecard12 min read