Understanding Probability Concepts Used in Trading Strategies

A ground-up course on the probability ideas that every systematic trading strategy quietly depends on. Built for engineering graduates, coders and self-taught traders who can write a loop but have never had probability explained in market terms. Covers expected value and edge, distributions and fat tails, conditional probability and base rates, sample size and the law of large numbers, and how these feed into position sizing, drawdown estimates and the honest evaluation of a backtest. Every idea is worked with Indian market examples: Nifty 50 daily returns, Bank Nifty options, Zerodha brokerage arithmetic and SEBI's own data on retail F&O outcomes.